- Presidential
- Election History
- Issues Discussed/Citizen Concerns
- Outcome: Polling vs. Results
- State
- Governor
- Congressional
- Initiatives
- Impact on South Asian Community
- mmigration Policy: Visas and Paths to Citizenship
- Racial Implications
- Economy
Presidential Election
Earlier this month, Americans voted up and down the ballot in the 2024 elections, highlighted by a contentious presidential race along with down ballot elections for governors, senators, representatives, and a variety of local elections like mayors, city council members, and members of school boards. The presidential race, taking place every four years, presented a number of candidates, most notably Democrat Kamala Harris, the Vice President and former California Senator and Attorney General seeking a first Presidential term, and Republican Donald Trump, former President, seeking a second non-consecutive term. As with the two previous presidential elections, the race was tense and fraught with heated debate and difficult conversations, with 77% of adults citing the election’s impact on the country as a significant source of stress.1
Initially, incumbent President Joseph Biden ran for a second term, but in the two weeks after his first debate against challenger Donald Trump, he bowed out, with Harris taking up the mantle at the Democratic National Convention.2 Both Harris and Trump discussed a number of issues individually on the campaign trail and in their sole debate, namely immigration, the economy and taxes, abortion, the environment, and foreign policy.3 Americans resonated with some of these issues, with the top five issues cited as “very important” in a September poll by Pew Research being the economy (81%), health care (65%), Supreme Court appointments (63%), foreign policy (62%), and violent crime (61%). Other important but less frequently mentioned issues included immigration, gun policy, abortion, racial and ethnic inequality, and climate change.4
Polling, and the efficacy of notable pollsters’ predictions and analyses, was quite important this cycle. It is important to note that polls are not guaranteed predictions of an election three months down the line, rather educated day-by-day sampled reflections that seek to provide some level of actionable information for both citizens and the campaigns themselves to adjust strategy accordingly. They change daily, they change quickly, and they rarely stay in the same place. That said, this election was notable for its neck-and-neck polling on public opinion of the candidates. On the morning of the election, at 6:00 AM on November 5th, Five Thirty Eight, a widely-cited poll aggregator, published its final simulation results: Harris wins 50 times out of 100, Trump wins 49 times out of 100, down from the widest gap of 64/100 (Harris) and 36/100 (Trump) on September 18th, around a week after the sole presidential debate on the 10th.5 At the same time, the results were clear. Now-Presidential-Elect Trump received 76,842,134 votes from the American public, winning the election with 312 electoral votes. Harris received 74,341,049 votes, underperforming expectations with 226 electoral votes.6 Regardless of where Americans stand on the election, it is important to recognize the disparity between polling and results: sometimes they are close, sometimes they are distant, but they oftentimes require more context and a grain of salt.
State Election
State elections are also essential, and while the fanfare of the presidential election cycle and perception of its sweeping and definitive influence at every level of American politics certainly is backed up by the undoubted importance of the presidency, state level politics have a significant effect on the day-to-day lives of Americans, where a hypothetical initiative in Arizona can change how tax dollars are spent to update rural library computer systems vs. the opposite change in, say, Michigan. The 2024 Washington state elections were no exception, marked by races for governor, Senate and House of Representatives seats, Attorney General, Washington State Supreme Court, and four particularly notable initiatives (along with many more down ballot positions). Listed below are the aforementioned election results.
Governor
Bob Ferguson (D) – 55.67% – Winner
Dave Reichert (R) – 44.33%
Senate
Maria Cantwell (D) – 59.3% – Winner
Dr. Raul Garcia (R) – 40.7%
House of Representatives – WA 3 (Southwest Washington incl. Vancouver)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) – 51.98% – Winner
Joe Kent (R) – 48.02%
Attorney General
Nick Brown (D) – 55.66% – Winner
Pete Serrano (R) – 44.34%
Supreme Court
Sal Mungia – 50.33% – Winner
Dave Larson – 49.67%7
State Initiatives
2066 – Natural Gas Access
Approved – 51.69%
Intended to protect access to natural gas for homes and businesses by prohibiting state and local governments from enacting laws that restrict its use, and by requiring utilities to provide natural gas service upon request.
2109 – Repeal Capital Gains Tax
Rejected – 64.11%
Intended to repeal the state’s 7% capital gains tax on the sale or exchange of long-term capital assets exceeding $250,000.
2117 – Repeal Climate Act
Rejected – 61.97%
Intended to repeal the state’s Climate Commitment Act (CCA), a cap-and-invest program established in 2021 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by requiring major polluters to purchase carbon credits.
2124 – Opt Out of WA Cares
Rejected – 55.46%
Intended to allow employees and self-employed individuals to opt out of the WA Cares Fund, the state’s mandatory long-term care insurance program funded through a payroll tax.8
Reflections for the South Asian Community
It’s important to contextualize the results of the election not only through the lens of our experience in the Western Washington Indian immigrant and refugee community (and greater South Asian) community, but also globally. Incumbent parties in Western democracies struggled across the board in post-2020 elections, losing in 40 out of 54 countries, including the UK’s Conservative Party losing control of the government to the Labour Party in the worst result for the “Tories” since 1832, ending 14 years of Conservative administrations. As with the United States, economic woes and inflation drove voters to (and deterred some voters from) the polls.9 This affects all of us, not just Indian Americans, or Seattleites, or Washingtonians, but Americans as a whole. When the economy sees a significant downturn, however short or long, people struggle to find jobs, buy food, pay rent, and put clothes on their kids’ backs. People in our own community were laid off, galvanizing fears amongst those holding work visas. When the economy suffers, the discussion of other important issues like healthcare and immigration are infused with vitriol and perhaps directionless passion, and while this can lead to waves of support, it can also lead to difficulties for members of any community, especially our own, who live here, send their kids to school here, save money here, dream of owning a home here, and are beloved members of our community. As a result, being a largely first-and-second-generation immigrant community, it is essential and prudent to remain aware of how politics and policy affect us.
1(Potter 2024)
2(Colleen, Miller, and Superville 2024)
3(Hoffman 2024)
4(Pew Research Center 2024)
5(Five Thirty Eight 2024)
6(Associated Press 2024)
7(King 5 News 2024)
8(WA Secretary of State 2024)
9(RISING, LAWLESS, and RICCARDI 2024)
